CQM gives Paleis Het Loo royal insight into visitor numbers
Paleis Het Loo is the premier museum dedicated to the fascinating history of the Dutch Royal House. Even a venue of such grandeur needs to keep pace with the times. The museum aims to use data science to improve its ability to predict visitor numbers. This allows the Apeldoorn-based museum to optimally align its planning of activities, staff, and resources with expected visitor levels. CQM provided the palace with a robust predictive model.
About Paleis Het Loo
Paleis Het Loo is one of the most popular museums in the Netherlands. Every year, over 350,000 people visit the exhibitions, special events, and magnificent gardens in and around the palace. Although visitor numbers have remained strong and stable in recent years, museum management wants greater insight into the factors influencing these figures. "If we understand these factors, we can predict visitor numbers even more accurately," says Director Michel van Maarseveen. "This, in turn, helps us make key decisions. For instance: when should we schedule specific exhibitions during busy periods or quieter ones? What impact do weather conditions have? Should we invest more in attracting visitors, or can we actually cut back on this for certain events? Being able to predict visitor numbers based on solid data enables us to manage Paleis Het Loo more efficiently, make adjustments when necessary, and provide better information to the Supervisory Board. It was clear to us that we needed to bring in external expertise for this. Our real estate consultant, Brink Management en Advies, recommended CQM. I thought: if CQM creates predictive models for NS and ProRail, surely they can do the same for us."
Do you have a question for Pleuni?
Surgical precision
Pleuni van Heiningen and Judith van Rijswick are forecasting experts at CQM. They began by identifying the factors that influence museum visitor numbers. "We held extensive discussions with staff from Paleis Het Loo," says Pleuni. "After all, they are the experts when it comes to the museum's daily operations, its various activities, and visitor numbers. From those conversations, we determined the influencing factors and their precise relationship with visitor numbers. Using historical data, among other sources, we then developed a model to forecast future visitor numbers." Van Maarseveen was particularly impressed by the almost "clinical" manner in which CQM compiled the list of potential influencing factors: "This was done in collaboration with our experts, with near-surgical precision. It allowed us to establish the exact impact of each factor beyond any doubt," the museum director noted.
Michel van Maarseveen, Director of Paleis Het Loo, and Pleuni van Heiningen of CQM.
New possibilities
Paleis Het Loo has now used CQM’s forecasting model to generate a forecast for the remainder of the year. This marks an initial phase to observe how the model performs in practice. An exciting new period lies ahead: starting January 8, 2018, Paleis Het Loo will close the doors of its main building for a three-year renovation and underground expansion project. During this time, the gardens and stables will remain open to the public, and outdoor events will continue as planned. From 2021 onwards, visitors will be welcomed back to the renovated palace building, which will offer more space for exhibitions. That is also when the new forecasting model will truly prove its worth. Michel van Maarseveen is highly confident about this: "We have already learned a great deal about the factors influencing our visitor numbers. For instance, we now know that, regarding the weather, only temperature has a significant impact on attendance. More specifically, the weather has no clear influence below 28 degrees Celsius. Above that threshold, however, daily visitor numbers drop by approximately 75 for every degree the temperature rises. We have also gained insight into the impact of scheduling 'blockbuster' exhibitions, exhibitions with strong visitor appeal. I intend to share all these insights with the museum community soon," the museum director stated. He also envisions further applications for CQM’s forecasting methodology: "This approach leaves no room for gut feelings or vested interests; it is based purely on facts." ‘It is therefore very interesting to see whether the forecasting methodology could also be used in the future to answer a question many museums would love to resolve: which subject offers the best chance of a blockbuster exhibition? Or, looking a little closer to the present: how can I better schedule my staff based on predicted visitor numbers? In short, working with a high-quality forecasting model opens the door to countless new possibilities,’ says Van Maarseveen.
The CQM approach
To develop forecasting models, CQM’s forecasting experts typically go through the following project phases:
1. Interviews with the client’s experts
2. Data inventory and collection
3. Data analysis
4. Development and validation of the forecasting methodology
5. Presentation of results and recommendations for next steps
Making texts/images public and/or reproducing them is permitted only with the express consent of CQM.
Photo credits: CQM and Paleis Het Loo.
Greater insight into visitor flows?
Would you also like more insight into your visitor flows, or do you want to be able to predict another process? Then contact our forecasting expert, Pleuni van Heijningen.
If you would also like to stay up to date with the latest news from CQM, follow us on LinkedIn or sign up for our digital newsletter, Quant.