Gaining greater control over revenue with a data-driven auction strategy at BritNed
How do you determine the optimal sales strategy for scarce capacity in an energy market that is constantly changing? And how do you know whether you are getting the maximum value from that capacity?
For BritNed, this is a strategic question. Through auctions, the company determines how the capacity of the electricity interconnector between the United Kingdom and the Netherlands is marketed. CQM further developed the existing SPLIT model, giving BritNed better insight into the value of different sales strategies and an even stronger data-driven foundation for decision-making.
BritNed's electricity interconnector is 260 kilometers long and has been transporting electricity between the United Kingdom and the Netherlands for more than 15 years. With a capacity of 1,000 megawatts, it can supply around two million households. BritNed is a joint venture between National Grid in the UK and TenneT in the Netherlands. The two partners share the revenues generated by the interconnector.
"We do not buy or sell electricity ourselves," explains Jon Cole, Customer and Markets Manager at BritNed (pictured). "We manage the cable and sell transmission capacity to energy traders, enabling them to trade electricity."
The energy market in which BritNed operates is highly dynamic and strongly influenced by external factors such as weather conditions and price differences between countries.
"On a windy day in the UK, for example, large amounts of wind energy may be generated and exported to the Netherlands," says Cole. "But during the summer, when the Netherlands produces large amounts of solar energy, the flow can be exactly the other way around."
Impact
"We can now see not only what we achieved, but also what was theoretically possible. This immediately shows us where we left value on the table."
Jon ColeCustomer and Markets Manager, BritNed
The right product mix
Energy traders want to buy electricity as cheaply as possible. For BritNed, the challenge is to market the available transmission capacity as effectively as possible. This is done through an auction process in which different products with varying volumes and durations are offered throughout the year.
Cole explains: "We determine that product mix ourselves based on our expectations regarding demand and the value of the different products. We offer annual, quarterly, and monthly products, as well as day-ahead products. The latter are popular because traders have greater certainty about electricity prices closer to the delivery date."
Determining the right product mix is complex. Not only because of market dynamics, but also because it is difficult to assess afterwards how well a chosen strategy actually performed. Without insight into the theoretical optimum, it remains unclear whether value was missed and where improvements can be made.
Pictured from left to right: Rutger van Beek and Joost van Sambeeck (CQM) with Fatima Kheiri (BritNed). All three were part of the project team that worked on the further development of SPLIT.
SPLIT
Choosing the right product mix is strategically important to BritNed because it determines the balance between revenue and certainty. Longer-term products, such as annual and quarterly contracts, are sold much earlier and therefore provide more predictable revenues.
To support these decisions, BritNed developed the SPLIT model many years ago. The model combines price forecasts with BritNed's operational constraints and calculates how the available capacity should be optimally allocated across the different products.
Cole: "The model calculates the expected value for each product type and determines how we should allocate our capacity and when we should offer specific products. The result is an auction calendar that maximizes expected revenue based on the information available at the time.
However, the model was not very user-friendly and was built in Matlab, a programming language that only one person within our organization could still work with. That made us vulnerable. In addition, it was difficult to run scenarios quickly and properly substantiate decisions. That is why we asked CQM to review the model."
Further development of SPLIT
"BritNed initially asked us to migrate the existing SPLIT model from Matlab to Python," says Arno van den Eijnden, Senior Consultant at CQM. "This made the model less dependent on a single specialist and more accessible across the organization. We then further developed SPLIT step by step, adding a user-friendly interface and the ability to run scenarios much faster. In this way, it evolved from a specialist calculation model into a practical decision-support system."
During this development phase, BritNed and CQM worked together on the basis of a fixed monthly fee. This provided enough flexibility to incorporate new insights immediately and continuously invest in the improvements that delivered the greatest value.
Key improvements
The development program ran from spring 2024 until mid-2025. During this period, the key improvements were implemented.
Van den Eijnden: "Thanks to the new user interface and configurable parameters, BritNed planners can now compare different product portfolios much more easily. We also migrated the model to the cloud, making it accessible from anywhere.
Scenario analyses that previously took hours are now available within minutes because much of the manual work has been automated. This has also significantly reduced the risk of human error."
Pictured: Data Analyst Fatima Kheiri (BritNed) next to a cross-section of the subsea high-voltage cable connecting the Netherlands and Great Britain.
For Jon Cole, the most important improvement is that SPLIT now looks not only forward, but also backward.
"The enhanced model consists of two components: pre-auction and post-auction. Every month, the pre-auction model determines the optimal product mix for the upcoming auction.
After the auction, the post-auction model analyzes what would have been possible under optimal conditions. This means we can see not only what we actually achieved, but also what was theoretically achievable. This immediately shows us where we left value on the table and which decisions deserve additional attention.
It gives us a very concrete view of our performance, not just for a single auction, but across an entire year. For 2025, we found that we achieved approximately 70% of the theoretical optimum.
Those insights translate directly into better decisions. One important conclusion, for example, was that we should sell less capacity through annual products and more through quarterly products. We implemented that change immediately, and we can already see the impact on our results.
The enhanced SPLIT model has also become an important tool for strategic analysis and reporting to management and the Board. We can now substantiate our decisions much more effectively and clearly demonstrate their impact. Where experience and intuition once played a major role, we now have a solid data-driven foundation."
The speed and reliability of decision-making have also improved significantly. Scenarios that previously took hours to calculate are now available within minutes.
The enhanced SPLIT model now supports BritNed in answering a crucial strategic question: which product mix generates the highest revenue under current market conditions? Where decisions were previously based largely on experience, BritNed now has a data-driven foundation that provides insight into performance, improvement potential, and concrete next steps.
"Just really good"
The largest improvements to SPLIT have now been completed. As a result, the project has transitioned into a standard support agreement.
Jon Cole also looks back on the collaboration with great satisfaction:
"I am extremely impressed by CQM. They bring a tremendous amount of knowledge, ideas, empathy, and professionalism. Just really good."
Jon ColeCustomer and Markets Manager, BritNed
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Jon Cole Customer and Markets Manager, BritNed
