15/09/2025
How ProRail analyses risk using data and makes fact-based decisions
The challenge: gaining control over rail safety risks
For ProRail, safety at level crossings is a matter of life and death. Yet until recently, risk assessments were largely qualitative. Traditional risk matrices offered a useful starting point but lacked the precision needed for robust policy decisions. But what if you want to know exactly: What makes a crossing (un)safe? What impact does a particular measure have—and at what cost? In that case, a data-driven approach becomes essential. That is exactly what ProRail developed, in collaboration with CQM and Goudappel. In the Dutch Secretary of State’s Progress Letter on Rail Safety, the result is called “a quality improvement” and “a model that calculates safety risk per type of level crossing user.” This marks a turning point: for better-informed conversations with ministries and municipalities—and for investment decisions within ProRail itself.
CQM’s contribution: from raw data to reliable decision-making
Together with transport consultancy Goudappel, CQM helped build a robust, quantitative foundation: the Dutch Level Crossing Risk Model (NORM) and a renewed effectiveness tool. Using our mathematical expertise and domain knowledge, we brought structure to over 20 years of accident data, crossing characteristics, train timetables and traffic volumes. With a centralised database and yearly updates, the tools now allow scenario analyses based on the most current traffic flows and measure effects. This gives direct insight into safety risks per type of road user, and the most effective interventions to reduce those risks. By integrating the model into a prototype dashboard, ProRail’s specialists can now work independently with NORM and the effectiveness tool—a major step forward in fact-based risk management.
The solution: an integrated tool for safety and cost-benefit analysis
Over the past four years, Goudappel and CQM developed:
- NORM: a scientifically validated model that quantifies safety risks per crossing, per user group – from pedestrians to train drivers – based on 20 years of data
- Effectiveness Tool: an updated calculation model to assess the impact of measures on safety, environment, disruption, and maintenance—and convert these into monetary benefits
- Prototype Dashboard: a functional application that allows users to explore scenarios, weigh trade-offs and provide well-founded policy advice
An external partner is currently developing a full Mendix application based on this prototype, integrating the calculation modules of both NORM and the effectiveness tool. The result: a robust, scalable and user-friendly solution, supporting fact-based decisions in ProRail’s operational safety policy.
Collaboration as key to success
The collaboration between Goudappel, CQM and ProRail was built on open communication, shared ambition and technical depth. By combining our expertise, we created models that are both scientifically sound and practically applicable. Working closely with ProRail’s experts ensured an effective and widely supported solution.
Monique Voorderhake-Borst (Team Manager Functional Management Level Crossings | AM-Engineering at ProRail):“Thanks to NORM and the effectiveness tool, we can now make better informed decisions. It provides direction, clarity and confidence—exactly what’s needed in a complex policy environment.”
Looking to make fact-based decisions that improve both safety and policy?
Discover how CQM can help you unlock the power of data.
Contact Joost – he’ll be happy to help.
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Image by: ProRail / Shane van Hattum
