15/09/2025
How ProRail uses data to analyse risks and make fact-based decisions
The challenge: understanding rail safety risks
Ensuring safety at level crossings is extremely important. For many years, however, risks were assessed mainly through expert judgement. While risk matrices offered a useful starting point, they did not offer the level of detail needed to support policy or investment decisions.
ProRail needed a transparent data-driven model to answer questions like: What makes a crossing safe or unsafe? and What effect does a safety measure have, and what does it cost?
Together with CQM and Goudappel, ProRail developed such a model. In the Dutch Secretary of State’s Progress Letter on Rail Safety, it is described as “a quality improvement” and “a model that calculates safety risk per road user.” This marks a significant step forward, enabling better-informed discussion with ministries and municipalities while also strengthening ProRail’s internal decision-making processes.
CQM’s contribution: turning data into insights
In close collaboration with Goudappel, CQM helped build a strong quantitative foundation. We structured more than 20 years of accident data, crossing characteristics, train timetables and traffic volumes, consolidating it in a single, centralized database that is updated annually.
We developed the Dutch Level Crossing Risk Model (NORM) and updated the Effectiveness Tool, allowing ProRail to run scenario analyses based on the latest mobility patterns and the expected effects of safety measures. As a result, ProRail gains clear insight into:
- The safety risks for each type of road user.
- Which interventions are most effective in reducing those risks.
By embedding the models into a prototype dashboard, ProRail’s specialists can independently use NORM and the Effectiveness Tool, making fact-based risk management part of everyday operations.
The solution: tools that support safety and cost-benefit decisions
Over the past four years, Goudappel and CQM developed three key components:
- NORM: a scientifically validated model that calculates the safety risk per road user for each individual crossing.
- Effectiveness Tool: a tool that shows the impact of safety-related measures on safety, environment, disruption, and maintenance, and translates these effects into monetary benefits.
- Prototype Dashboard: an application that allows users to explore scenarios and provide well-founded policy advice
An external partner is currently developing a full Mendix application based on this prototype. This system integrates NORM and the Effectiveness Tool into one scalable and user-friendly system. This supports fact-based decisions across ProRail’s operational safety policy.
Collaboration as key to success
The collaboration between Goudappel, CQM and ProRail was built on open communication, shared ambition and technical expertise. By combining complementary strengths, we developed models and tools that are both scientifically sound and practically applicable. Working closely with ProRail’s experts ensured an effective and widely supported solution.
Monique Voorderhake-Borst (Team Manager Functional Management Level Crossings | AM-Engineering at ProRail):
“Thanks to NORM and the effectiveness tool, we can now make better informed decisions. It provides direction, clarity and confidence—exactly what’s needed in a complex policy environment.”
Looking to make fact-based decisions that improve both safety and policy?
Discover how CQM can help you unlock the power of data.
Contact Joost – he’ll be happy to help.
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Image by: ProRail / Shane van Hattum
